Derby Winners Often Repeat in the Preakness

Thursday, May 18th, 2006 (Greg Melikov)

Six Kentucky Derby winners in the past nine years have captured the Preakness, four by 1 ½ lengths or more.

That’s a good omen for Barbaro, who crushed the opposition winning the 132nd Kentucky Derby while ending a 50-year losing streak by 3-year-olds resting five weeks or longer after their final prep.

Needles was off six weeks before his triumph at Churchill Downs in 1956. Both had won the Florida Derby. However, Needles was edged by Fabius in the Preakness.

Barbaro, the morning line even money favorite breaking from post position 6, will face 11 fewer horses Saturday than he defeated at Louisville on May 6 when he won by 6 ½ lengths. That’s the largest margin since ’46 when Triple Crown champ Assault scored by eight lengths at the 1 ¼ miles.

Only two Derby also-rans will try him in the 131st Preakness: Brother Derek, the 3-1 second choice in post 3, who rallied from 10th after a mile to dead-heat for fourth with Jazil, and Sweetnorthernsaint, 4-1 who drew post 7, who pressed the pace in third until the stretch when he tired and finished seventh.

The Preakness at 1 3/16 miles has had fewer than 10 starters just once in the last 15 years when eight ran in ’00. Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, who scared away all by seven challengers, was upset at 1-5 by Red Bullet, who skipped America’s Race.

Six other horses will attempt to become only the second horse to win the Preakness after skipping the Derby since ’83 when Deputed Testimony performed the feat.

The six are Like Now, 12-1 in post 1, runner-up in the Lexington; Platinum Couple, 50-1 in post 2, fifth in the Wood Memorial; Hemingway’s Key, 30-1 in post 3, eighth in the Lexington; Greeley’s Legacy, 20-1 in post 4, fourth in the Lexington; Bernardini, 8-1 in post 8, winner of the Withers; and Diabolical, 30-1 in post 9, first in a Delaware allowance contest.

Trainer Bob Baffert decided against entering any of his Derby horses. Baffert said Point Determined, ninth, and Bob and John, 17th, would be pointed toward the Belmont Stakes on June 10. Bluegrass Cat, the Derby runner-up, and Steppenwolfer, third, also are expected to run in the Belmont.

The largest winning margin in the Preakness came in ’04 when Smarty Jones cruised to an 11 ½-length victory, besting Funny Cide’s record of 9 ¾ lengths in ’03.

Most of the previous races since Silver Charm triumphed by a head in ’97 were closer. In fact, only three horses had shared the onetime record of eight lengths: Little Current, ’74; Bold, ’51; and Buddhist, 1889.

This year’s Preakness should be tighter. I like the undefeated Barbaro despite the shorter layoff.

Sweetnorthernsaint and Brother Derek should bounce back and be tougher at 1 3/16 miles. Either could win.

Ironically, the largest margin of 10 lengths stood for 130 years after the inaugural Preakness in 1873. The aptly named Survivor set that record.

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