Can the Green Bay Packers survive the exodus of key players and coaches?
September 1, 2022
Aaron Rodgers will have to adapt in 2022 if the Pack are going to remain a contender
NFL Preview – Green Bay Packers
By Steve Quinne
Win Total = 11.0
Nothing in sports is truly a “sure thing.” Especially in the NFL. But the Packers certainly feel a bit like one.
They’ve owned the NFC North the past three seasons, going a combined 39-10 during Matt LaFleur’s first three seasons as the head coach in Green Bay. They’ve notched three consecutive 13-win seasons, cruising to the playoffs in each campaign.
The past two years, they’ve done it behind the league’s Most Valuable Player. Aaron Rodgers has been the best player in the NFL, throwing 85 touchdowns and just nine (yes, nine) interceptions en route to those back-to-back MVPs.
Thus, it seems unlikely that the Packers are going to regress by three wins. Could they slump a little bit? Sure. But dropping to a 10-win team seems like a bit of a collapse.
Yes, Rodgers turns 39 in December. At some point, Father Time is going to catch up with the quarterback.
Admittedly, losing Davante Adams to the Raiders will hurt. The wideout was the best weapon in the Packers arsenal, a favorite target of Rodgers.
And most likely, seeing a lot of the coaching staff depart for other gigs will take a toll. Nathaniel Hackett, Justin Outten and Luke Getsy are all gone from the offensive side of the ball.
So, the 11.0-win total is probably about right. That’s likely where the Packers will end up, putting a push squarely in play.
Thus, the debate is which side of that well-placed number is more likely. Does Green Bay fall to 10 wins or less? Or can the Packers get to 12 victories or more? Based on recent history, taking the over is the smarter play.
The NFC North offers up some easy wins, as Chicago and Detroit will be lucky to get a split with Green Bay, while Minnesota is certainly beatable. The Packers also play the AFC East, which features a couple of layups, and the NFC East, providing the same level of difficulty.
The Buccaneers, Rams and Titans round out the slate. Green Bay might have to win one of those three to reach the over.
While it might not be a sure thing, it’s pretty darn close. Take the Packers and the over.
Odds to Win the Super Bowl = 10/1
Taking the Packers to make the playoffs isn’t good value. At -420, it’s hardly worth the risk.
Thus, a loftier future is the only way to go. Winning the Super Bowl offers the best bang for the buck.
While Green Bay has won a lot of games the last three years, the Packers have come up short in the playoffs. That’s a blight on their resume that has to eat at Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers quarterback loves to prove people wrong. He seems to thrive on having an axe to grind.
This year, it’s the previous playoff failures, plus the loss of Davante Adams, that have people doubting Rodgers. That’s all the motivation he needs.
Rodgers would love nothing more than sticking it to his doubters. That’s not a bad play to make.
Aaron Rodgers to Lead the NFL in Passing Yards = 16/1
Yep, Davante Adams is gone. That’s a huge weapon out of the arsenal, removing Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target.
But still, are there really eight quarterbacks more likely to lead the league in passing yards than the back-to-back Most Valuable Player? That seems like a stretch.
One way or another, Rodgers will figure it out. He’ll find a way to move the ball through the air. He’ll turn someone else on the roster into a star wideout.
The best quarterback in the league is 16/1 to lead the NFL in passing yards? That’s simply too good to pass up.