Football Friday

November 4, 2022

Steve Quinne previews the biggest games on this week’s NFL slate


Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears

Soldier Field – Chicago, IL

1:00 PM ET

SuperBook Line: Miami -4.5

The Dolphins are 5-3 due in large part to an offense that is amongst the best in the entire league. Miami is seventh in yards per game, third in passing yards per game and second in yards per completion. Tua Tagovailoa is the league leader in passer rating and Tyreek Hill leads the league with 961 yards. He is currently on pace for 2,042 receiving yards for the season which would be an all-time record.

Needless to say, the Miami Dolphins have a high-powered offense that is winning football games. With Tua on the field for the entirety of the game, the Dolphins are 5-0. As Tua emerges as an elite quarterback in the NFL, the Dolphins are team to watch out for.

The Bears have been playing better as of late. They had a nice win over the Patriots on Monday night of Week 7, winning 33-14 at New England. But Chicago is still 3-5 and one of the worst offensive teams in the league. The Bears are 23rd in points per game and 27th in yards per game.

This number should be much higher in favor of Miami. While Justin Fields and the Bears may be at home in November, the high-scoring Dolphins offense is going be too much for a defense that just lost its best player in Roquan Smith.

Steve Quinne’s pick: Miami -4.5 (-110)


Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders

FedEx Field – Summerfield, MD

1:00 PM ET

SuperBook Line: Minnesota -3.0

Minnesota comes into this game with a 6-1 record. The Vikings’ only loss came to the undefeated Eagles. They’re well on their way to winning the NFC North, as they are 3.5 games up on the Packers.

Kevin O’Connell’s team is ninth in the league in points scored per game. Kirk Cousins has been consistent and with skill players like Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson; they are not a team anyone wants to play.

The Vikings defense hasn’t been great, as they are 28th in yards allowed per game. However, they now play the Commanders, who are 22nd in yards per game and 27th in points per game. They’ve had bright spots with Terry McLaurin, but for the most part it has been pretty brutal in D.C.

The line on this one is 3.0 in favor of Minnesota, but it should definitely be higher. Washington’s three-game winning streak will come to an end, as the Vikings extend their run to six consecutive W’s.

Steve Quinne’s pick: Minnesota -3.0 (-110)


Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO

8:20 PM ET

SuperBook Line: Kansas City -12.5

Last year when the Titans and Chiefs played, Tennessee didn’t just get the best of Kansas City, but they absolutely dominated with a 27-3 win. That will most definitely be on the minds of Chiefs players as this matchup will be primetime on “Sunday Night Football.”

All signs point to a big win for the Chiefs. They are at home in November, which for them is an advantage like no other. Kansas City is coming off of a bye week, which statistically speaking means they have an 86.9% chance of winning. That is due to Andy Reid’s 20-3 record coming off a bye week as a head coach.

The Titans are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league – for good reason. Derrick Henry is an elite ballcarrier who just last week had his best game of the season rushing for 219 yards and two touchdowns. The Titans threw just one pass in the second half of their win over the Texans.

They won’t be able to do the same thing against the Chiefs, however. Kansas City is the third-best rushing defense in the NFL, allowing just 92.0 yards per game. The Chiefs have an elite defense and an elite offense, as K.C. scores a league-high 31.9 points per game. Patrick Mahomes is fourth in the league in passing yards despite having a bye week.

The Titans have won five straight games after starting 0-2, so they come into this game as one of the hottest teams in the league. That streak will most likely come to an end on Sunday night.

Steve Quinne’s pick: Kansas City -12.5 (-110)

Prop Shop

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Raiders/Jaguars under 48.0 (-110)

Last week, Jacksonville scored just 17 points in London against Denver. But Las Vegas was even worse offensively in Week 8, getting shut out in New Orleans. On the season, the Jaguars are averaging 21.5 points per game, while the Raiders are at 23.3. Yes, Vegas gives up 24.9 points per outing, but it’s hard to see the Jags exploiting that weakness. Meanwhile, J-Vill’s defense is stingy, giving up just 19.8; that’ll keep the Raiders in a funk. Expect a game in the teens; take the under.

Zach Wilson under 210.5 passing yards (-115)

The Jets are an 11.5-point underdog to the Bills, so they may be playing catch up in the second half. That gives Wilson a chance to accumulate some garbage yards. However, New York’s game plan will be to play keep away, trying to control the clock and force Buffalo’s offense to stand on the sidelines. They’ll do that by running the football. If the Jets try to attack a Buffalo pass defense that is ninth in the NFL, their young quarterback will struggle.

Justin Herbert over 282.5 passing yards (-115)

The Chargers are trying to regroup after their bye week. The season hasn’t been a disaster for Los Angeles thus far, but they are a disappointing 4-3. They’ll try to jumpstart their second half in Atlanta, where they face a Falcons team with the worst passing defense in the league. Justin Herbert should be able to find success against the only defense in the NFL that surrenders more than 300 passing yards per game (306.9). Herbert is averaging 287.0 yards per game this season, a number he’ll increase on Sunday.

Around the Nation

Headlines to note heading into the college football weekend.

A Monster Game – It’s not hard to figure out the game of the week. It’s the battle between No. 1 and No. 3, as Tennessee travels to take on Georgia in a game with enormous implications. How big is this showdown? Well, Sports Illustrated gave it the full preview treatment, breaking out a “Perfect Tenn” cover that harkens backs to the publication’s glory days. It’s definitely a worthwhile pregame read.

Justified Punishment – Arguably the ugliest scene from this year’s college football season was what transpired last week in the tunnel at the Big House, when Michigan State players attacked a Michigan player. Clearly, there was going to be fallout from the incident, as it was something that couldn’t be ignored. The punishment was swift, as MSU suspended four players who were involved in the attack.

Looking Ahead – Yes, it’s only the first week of November, but that fact doesn’t keep some people from peering into their crystal ball. ESPN’s Mel Kiper has his sights set nearly six months down the road, as he’s thinking about the 2023 NFL Draft. Who does the draftnik have going at the top of the first round? Well, he talked about his current “big board” this week on the network.