Kornegay’s Korner: The Jet Has Landed
April 26, 2023
There you have it sports fans: The Jet has finally landed. It’s the newest old news to hit the news you ever knew already. You know?
Aaron Rodgers is a Jet. At last. But don’t get any wise ideas. The wiser guys are way ahead of you.
“We adjusted the Jets’ odds starting about six weeks ago when rumors started flying,” says Jay Kornegay, Chief Oddsmaker at SuperBook Sports. “As they heated up, more adjustments were made. The Jets were 15-to-1 to win the AFC and 30-to-1 to win the Super Bowl six weeks ago, and over time, were adjusted downward to 6- and 12- to-1 respectively. Those were the odds when the trade was officially announced. No further adjustments were needed.
“The Packers were 15-to-1 to win the NFC and 30-to-1 to win the Super Bowl six weeks ago. They’re currently set at 22- and 50-to-1.”
Keep your own tabs if you don’t believe him, but very little has moved the needle for the Jets since the old news became real new news. And just in case you’re wondering, the Chiefs are still everyone’s favorite to win it all.
The story of Rodgers going to the Jets is as big as it gets – even if it sizzled then fizzled then finally happened – and it most certainly impacted the betting odds in the NFL, even if Kornegay and his Vegas counterparts were well out in front of the official transaction. On that note, don’t expect Thursday’s draft to drastically change the futures either. Those odds have already been adjusted as well.
“For the most part, adjustments have already been made based on the information we have,” Kornegay says with regard to the NFL Draft. “We’re fairly certain the Panthers are going to take Bryce Young, and the Texans are going to take C.J. Stroud. We don’t foresee any major adjustments.
“You’ll see some adjusting if a veteran quarterback gets traded or if a team is able to stockpile draft picks. Additional adjustments will be made when impact players are traded or if there’s a major rake of draft picks from a trade.”
The lesson? If you like the looks of a team’s futures now, bet confidently they those odds won’t change much on or after draft night. Headlining trades are really the only thing that can have big implications for NFL oddsmakers.
Or in other words, if you like the Jets at +1200, then get your B-E-T-S on the Jets! Jets! Jets!
Three bets worth considering on a Wednesday night
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Truist Park – Atlanta, GA
7:20 PM ET
SuperBook Line: Atlanta -165
At first glance, this looks like a chance to lean toward the Marlins. After all, they have their 14-game winner from a year ago on the mound.
But so far this season, Sandy Alcántara isn’t the same pitcher as he was in 2022. He’s just 1-2 on the season, with a 5.47 ERA.
That only tells part of the story. In three of his last four starts, Alcántara has allowed three runs or more. That includes an outing against the Phillies when the righty was shelled for nine runs on 10 hits. He’s scuffling, to put it mildly.
Bryce Elder certainly is the lesser-known pitcher in this matchup. But the Braves starter has been exceptional this season.
The righthander is 2-0 on the year, boasting a 1.14 ERA. In his last four starts, Elder has allowed a grand total of four runs across 23.2 innings. That’s hard to ignore.
Miami is on a three-game losing streak, including the first two of this series. Atlanta has outscored the Marlins 18-4 across the last two nights.
That’s indicative of the Braves have a much better offense. They’ve scored 48 more runs than the Marlins thus far in 2023, a staggering number through 24/25 games.
Don’t get reeled in by the name recognition on the mound. Take the Braves in this one.
Richard DeMala’s pick: Atlanta M/L (-165)
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, WI
9:30 PM ET
SuperBook Line: Milwaukee -11.5
Nobody saw this one coming. The No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, the team boasting the best record in the NBA during the regular season, is one game away from elimination in the first round of the playoffs.
It’s certainly understandable how the Bucks got themselves in this position. After all, they played Games 2 and 3 of this series without their best player, as Giannis Antetokounmpo sat with an injury.
Milwaukee also blew a big lead in Game 4, allowing 41 points to the Heat in the fourth quarter of a 119-114 loss. Jimmy Butler took over that game, pouring in 56 points in the comeback victory.
It’s hard to imagine the Bucks going down without a fight tonight. But the number is too lofty, as double digits for a team down 3-1 in the series seems high. Thus, it’s time to look another direction.
The last seven times these two teams have played in Milwaukee, the total has gone over. That number is 3-1 in this series, as well.
The over is 4-0 the last four times the Bucks have suffered an against-the-spread (ATS) loss. It’s also 7-0 in the last seven games the Heat have played following an ATS win.
Expect the Bucks to play fast and furious being a game away from elimination. It’ll be a lot of offensive fireworks at Fiserv Forum tonight. Take the over.
Jason Schlefsky’s pick: Milwaukee/Miami over 220 (-110)
Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies
FedExForum – Memphis, TN
7:30 PM ET
SuperBook Line: Memphis -4.0
After dropping both games in Los Angeles, Memphis limps home facing elimination. The No. 2 seed in the West is down 3-1, on the brink of being bounced in the first round.
The Grizzlies have a great chance of staying alive, however, given that they’re at home. During the regular season, they posted a 35-6 record at FedEx Forum, the best home mark in the NBA.
But they can’t just count on familiar surroundings to carry them. Memphis has to get back to what worked for it in this series.
In the one game they won, the Grizzlies played great defense. They walked away with a 103-93 victory in Game 2. They’ll have to follow a similar formula tonight, which creates an opportunity.
The under is 10-1-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams in Memphis. It’s 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings. And it’s 2-2 so far this series.
It’ll go that way again tonight. The Grizzlies will bring a great defense effort in an attempt to stay alive. That’ll carry them to an ugly, low-scoring win. Take the under.
Jason Schlefsky’s pick: Memphis-Los Angeles under 222.5 (-110)
Today’s best packaged deal
- New York Mets M/L (-205)
- Los Angeles Angels M/L (-210)
This combination features two teams that are strong favorites facing off against clubs that are arguably the worst in their respective leagues. The Mets are looking to bounce back after a 5-0 shutout loss against a bad Washington team. They will have Kodai Senga on the mound at home; he’s 3-0 on the season. The Angels simply have to beat a hopeless team, as the A’s are 5-19 on the season. Seems more than doable.
Richard DeMala’s Two-Leg Parlay = +120
Around the Nation
Things we’ve learned this week
A late surge for the No. 1 spot
A few weeks ago, it seemed like a done deal that the Panthers were taking Bryce Young with the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. But as things get closer, there are rumblings that Carolina might’ve changed their mind. Everyone will find out for sure on Thursday night, but one name is shooting up draft boards. Will Levis is the hot name coming down the stretch, as the Kentucky quarterback could go No. 1 overall, but looks like a surefire top-five pick.
Unraveling at the seams
Colorado is trying to escape their first-round series against Seattle, but things aren’t looking good for the defending champs. After losing in overtime on Monday night, the Avalanche find themselves tied with the Kraken at 2-2. To make matters worse, they’re losing stars at an alarming rate. Already without Gabriel Landeskog for the postseason, Valeri Nichushkin has mysteriously disappeared, missing the last two games for an undisclosed reason, and Cale Makar has been suspended for Game 5, after a dirty hit against Jared McCann. It might be a short Cup defense for the Avs.