Team Capsules: Buffalo Bills

July 28, 2023

A look at every NFL franchise heading into the 2023 season

© Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Buffalo Bills are one of the NFL’s top teams every season. However, that is to be expected when you have a guy like Josh Allen under center. Allen is on the cover of Madden NFL 24 and finished third in MVP voting last year.

His favorite target, Stefon Diggs, is a three-time Pro Bowler who amassed over 1,400 receiving yards last season. Not only do the Bills have a dynamic offense, but their defense isn’t bad, either.

Buffalo ranked as the sixth-best defense in 2022, giving up just 319 yards per game. The Bills over/under for wins this season is 10.5 and they currently have the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +900.

The Bills are a powerhouse capable of winning on any given Sunday. Allen is a franchise quarterback hoping to give Buffalo fans their first-ever Super Bowl title. By now, that is the expectation.

It’s the Super Bowl or bust for this team of superstars. Will they be able to get the job done in 2023?

What to like about the Bills…

  • Josh Allen is yet to win an MVP award. He finished third place in voting last year behind Jalen Hurts and the winner of the award, Patrick Mahomes. Allen has thrown for over 4,200 yards for three straight years and has thrown for 107 touchdowns in that span. He is currently the third favorite to win the award.
  • The Bills have made the playoffs in each of the last four seasons and they are likely to do it again. It would be shocking if they didn’t. They are currently -290 and those are the best odds you’ll get all season long.

  • We say it every year. This is the Bills’ year to get their first-ever Super Bowl victory. However, this year feels different. The competition is still profound, but after a deeper look into things, it’s really just one team, the Kansas City Chiefs. If the Bills can find a way to beat the Chiefs, and avenge their 2021 playoff loss, they have a superb chance of winning the Super Bowl.
  • It’s tough to predict how many wins a certain team will get over the course of a regular season. However, the Bills should be getting more than 10 wins. Their first 10 games are against very beatable teams and they could very easily start 9-1. They do finish the year tough, as they play the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and Chargers.

What not to like about the Bills…

  • Yes, the Bills should win the AFC East. At +120, Buffalo is the favorite to do so. However, this is the NFL, where crazy stuff seems to happen every year. The Jets have Aaron Rodgers and the Dolphins have enough firepower to compete. Betting on the Bills to win the division is never a bad wager, but considering the improvements around them in the East, a payoff of only +120 feels uninspired.
  • Week 1 is arguably the craziest week in the NFL season. Every team, good or bad, goes through some sort of learning curve on week 1. Sometimes, those learning curves lead to unexpected losses. The Bills open on Monday night against the Jets, in the meadowlands. The Bills are favored, but it’s not by much. This could easily be a learning curve game, and the Rodgers New York debut feels like a game you don’t want to touch.
  • Even if the Buffalo Bills get the No. 1 seed in the AFC, Sean McDermott still won’t win coach of the year. Why? Because they are expected to compete for the top seed. The NFL’s coach of the year repeatedly goes to coaches who turn bad teams into good ones. Five-win teams into playoff teams. Last year’s winner, Brian Daboll did just that. He took what was a four-win team and led them to the Divisional Playoffs. That’s why the favorites to win the award include Dan Campbell, Arthur Smith and Matt Eberflus.

Steve Quinne’s Pick… Bills over 10.5 wins (-110)

The Bills are a top team in the AFC, and despite it being a tough conference, it’s hard to see them finishing 10-7 or worse. They have an easy start to their schedule and finish with some tough, but winnable games. It would be shocking if they don’t win 11 or more games. A bet on the over is a fun and almost surefire bet to make.