New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns and New York Jets get the Week 17 NFL slate rolling on Thursday night, as the NFL regular season nears its conclusion. The Jets hit the road as touchdown underdogs, looking to play spoiler against a Browns squad that is surging and in position to make the playoffs.

The Browns are 3-1 since inserting veteran Joe Flacco in at quarterback. Cleveland was one of the standouts of last week, as they torched the Houston Texans 36-22. Flacco turned back the clock, throwing for 368 yards and three touchdowns en route to the victory. Fellow veteran Amari Cooper grabbed 265 of those yards and two touchdowns. The Jets had a torching of their own, beating the Washington Commanders 30-6.

Cleveland has a number of players on their injury report heading into this matchup, including both their kicker and punter, which is certainly something to monitor leading up to kickoff. Most of their primary playmakers on both sides of the ball should be good to go for both teams in this matchup. Trevor Siemian is in line to get the start for New York. He completed 27 of 49 pass attempts for 217 yards last week.

Let’s take a look at this game from a betting perspective.

Cleveland -7.5 (-110)

What to like about this line…

• The Browns look like a new team since the start of December. After losing DeShaun Watson to injury, Cleveland has received a breath of fresh air, and stability, with Flacco at quarterback. Flacco has been so good that his name has been tossed around in the Comeback Player of the Year conversation, seeing as the sun appeared to be setting on his career.

• In large part due to Flacco’s contributions, Cleveland has scored 30-plus points in three of the last four weeks and is riding a three-game win streak entering this matchup. New York has lost five of their nine games by over a touchdown this season, with all of the tight games being against mediocre competition at best.

• Sure, the Jets are fresh off a big victory, but it’s hard to put a ton of stock into a 30-point performance against an atrocious Commanders squad. Following the win, the state of the Jets feels more like fiction than fact. Furthermore, New York has been awful against the spread under the command of Robert Saleh on a short week. The Jets’ coach is 0-5 ATS when playing on short rest, and there’s reason to believe that trend will continue as the Browns continue to round into form. New York will likely run out a journeyman at quarterback and bank on their defense to slow one of the hottest offenses in the league right now.

What not to like about this line…

• This line was sitting under a touchdown on the look-ahead line and has since ballooned through the key number of 7.0. While the Jets’ offense is awful, they feature one of the best defensive units in the league, ranking second and third in the NFL in passing yards and total yards per game on average.

• The Joe Flacco story has been fun to witness. Let’s not forget Flacco played for the Jets not long ago, so New York is sure to have some level of familiarity with his strengths and weaknesses.

• While the body of work is not great for this New York offense, perhaps they will capture some momentum from last week’s win. New York has scored 30 points in two of their previous three games. The NFL has been wacky this season, as parity is abundant throughout the league. Just weeks ago, the Browns and Bills seemed like they were down and out, now both squads are surging. We’ve seen upset victories from teams like the Jets, Texans, and Patriots. The league has been back and forth this year, and this could be a letdown spot should Cleveland overlook New York. It’s a year of parity in the NFL. Could the Jets catch this Browns team sleeping and keep the game within a touchdown?

Over/Under 33.5 (-110)

What to like about the over…

• 33.5 is a very low total for two teams that feature explosive offenses leading up to this game. The Browns went over this number themselves last week, and the Jets damn near did, as well. If Flacco continues to steer the offense as he has, and the Jets can play somewhat competent on that side of the ball themselves, then this game has a chance to clear the low number. Cleveland has entrusted Flacco with the offense, as he’s thrown the ball well over 40 times since becoming the starting quarterback. More passing attempts could lead to more chunk plays and scoring opportunities.

What to like about the under…

• This game features two of the top-three defensive units in football. Only the Chiefs and Browns have allowed fewer yards per game on average than the Jets. Both teams are especially good at defending the pass, which could lead to a throwback-style game that keeps this ball on the ground and the clock moving. Furthermore, while both squads are among the best defensively, this is a nightmare matchup for the Jets’ offense. The returns have not been great collectively, and the Browns will be able to focus on limiting the production of wideout Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall. Last week’s game is a little bit misleading at a glance, and the Browns should be able to shut this team down should they be locked in from the get-go.

Steve Quinne’s Pick: Jets team total under 13 (-105)

It’s hard to buy what the Jets have been selling over the last three weeks. They’ve struggled against quality teams for most of the season, as evident in their 30-0 and 34-13 losses to the Dolphins and 32-6 loss to the Bills. While the Jets were competitive against the Chiefs early in the season and beat the Bills to open the year, they still have many flaws. That said, it’s hard not to buy what the Browns are selling on both sides of the ball. Flacco is in a groove, and their defense is top-notch. Cleveland has held opponents under this number four times already this season, so let’s look for them to do it again in a favorable matchup as they look to make the playoffs.